Please forgive the following conjecture and musings and don't interpret them as more than that. They are but one man's opinions - we would all love to win in a landslide, and with hard work that may yet come to pass...
Looking at the trends, assuming we sustain our GOTV efforts in all the so-called "battleground states" as declared in the early election season, it looks to me like there are only 4 states where the outcome at this point really seems like a tossup.
They are: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin
These are states that don't seem to be trending convincingly yet, though Ohio and Wisconsin seem to be slightly trending Kerry at this point, and for which the polls have mostly been all over the place.
From what I've seen so far this election season, these states are very likely to go Kerry:
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania
These look likely for Bush:
Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia
Before you start yelling, yes, other outcomes are certainly possible for many states, especially if turnout is spectacular, but just looking at the numbers across all the polls, this is what seems most likely, if nothing drastic happens between now and November 2.
If you tally the EVs, at 247 Kerry needs either Florida, or Ohio and either Wisconsin or Iowa to win. The rule you've been hearing so much about anyone winning 2 out of 3 of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania holds up, but only if Kerry can hold onto one of his two midwest 2000 squeaker states (or something unexpected happens elsewhere, like Nevada).
It'd be nice to win Florida, but you'd have to be naive to think that Kerry will be able to win there if the vote is close, and at this point, at least, it's looking like the vote will be close. If GOTV efforts there are successful to an unprecedented level, there's no paperless DRE cheating, and no widespread disenfranchisement, who knows? But that's a lot of "ifs." So Ohio is a must win. Fortunately for us, things are looking up there - the state's recent bad fortunes are making it a tough sell for an incumbent, and our tireless efforts there are paying off.
Assuming this comes to pass, that puts Kerry at 267 EVs. Of Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned above, the numbers are looking to be improving in the former. Hopefully the people of the dairy state will forgive Kerry's "Lambert Field" gaffe and deliver.